Story
Sterling Slips as Markets Brace for Fed Hike, UK Inflation Rises
Summary
The British pound lost ground against a strengthening U.S. dollar as investors awaited a widely expected Federal Reserve rate hike. A modest acceleration in UK inflation also weighed on the currency, though analysts believe it is unlikely to alter the Bank of England's policy path.
The British pound slipped on Wednesday, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hike and new data showing a slight uptick in UK inflation. The GBP/USD pair fell to 1.3474 as markets braced for the central bank's policy announcement later in the day, according to data from Investing.com.
Dollar Strength Dominates Ahead of Fed Meeting
The U.S. dollar found broad support as financial markets have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, which would lift its key rate to 4%. With the hike largely seen as a certainty, market focus has shifted to the subsequent press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the release of the updated "dot plot" of policymakers' rate projections for future signals on policy direction.
"Any openness to further tightening can support the dollar by reinforcing policy credibility," said Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, in comments cited by the report. He added that elevated oil prices and softer sentiment in tech stocks have also made investors reluctant to build new short positions against the dollar.
UK Inflation Accelerates but Fails to Shift Outlook
Adding to the pound's softer tone, the UK's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 3.1% in August from 2.9% the previous month. The increase was primarily driven by a widely expected 7% monthly surge in fuel costs.
AdDespite the rise in the headline figure, analysts suggest the data is unlikely to force the Bank of England (BoE) into a more hawkish policy stance. ING analysis highlighted that with core services inflation contained at 3.4%, there is little in the report to suggest the BoE needs to tighten policy further. ING expects UK inflation to peak near 3.7% early next year but sees the central bank holding rates into 2027.
Market Reaction and Analyst Views
The dynamic has created a challenging environment for sterling, caught between a hawkish Fed and a more patient BoE. The contrast in central bank outlooks was also reflected in other currency pairs.
Analysts at ING noted that the in-line UK inflation data could lead to strength in the euro relative to the pound. The bank is targeting a move above 0.860 for the EUR/GBP pair "in the coming days," as the data gives BoE doves reason to argue against following hawkish market pricing.
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