Marathon Petroleum Options Pricing in 4.4% Post-Earnings Move

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) shares could see a post-earnings move of approximately 4.4% in either direction, according to options market data. The petroleum refiner is scheduled to report its quarterly results on November 3, before the market opens.

Options Market Expectations

This expected price swing, known as the implied move, is derived from the pricing of options contracts that expire shortly after the company's announcement. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, traders are collectively pricing in a 4.4% move, reflecting the market's consensus expectation for the stock's reaction to the new financial results.

Implied volatility is a key metric for traders, as it gauges anticipated share price turbulence and is used to price risk and structure options strategies around catalyst events like earnings.

Historical Volatility vs. Implied Moves

A review of past earnings announcements shows that Marathon Petroleum's stock has frequently been more volatile than the options market predicted. The stock's actual price change has exceeded the options-implied move in five of the last eight earnings releases.

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For instance, following its May 5 report, the stock surged 14.7%, significantly surpassing the 4.1% move implied by options at the time. Conversely, after the August 4 release, the stock moved just 0.1% despite a 4.7% implied move.

A summary of the past eight reports includes:

• Aug. 4: 0.1% actual move vs. 4.7% implied
• May 5: 14.7% actual move vs. 4.1% implied
• Feb. 3: 8.7% actual move vs. 3.6% implied
• Nov. 4, 2025: -6.3% actual move vs. 1.5% implied
• Aug. 5, 2025: -3.4% actual move vs. 3.3% implied
• May 6, 2025: 5.1% actual move vs. 4.9% implied
• Feb. 4, 2025: 2.8% actual move vs. 3.7% implied
• Nov. 5, 2024: -1.0% actual move vs. 4.7% implied

While the implied move provides a benchmark for expected volatility, the historical data for MPC indicates a tendency for larger-than-expected price swings. This discrepancy is a factor investors may consider when assessing risk ahead of the November 3 report.