JPMorgan Trims 2026 Box Office Forecast on Slow Third-Quarter Start

JPMorgan has trimmed its 2026 forecast for the North American box office, citing a slow start to the third quarter and the underperformance of key film releases. The investment bank now projects total revenue of $9.65 billion for the year, a reduction from its previous estimate of $9.86 billion.

A Tale of Two Quarters

The revised full-year outlook comes despite a robust second quarter, which analysts at the bank noted was the highest-grossing period since the pandemic. Second-quarter box office revenue reached $2.97 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase that surpassed JPMorgan's estimate of $2.75 billion, driven by strong performances from films like *Obsession* and *Backrooms*.

However, this strength is being offset by a weaker-than-anticipated third quarter. According to the report, the underperformance of releases such as *Minions* and *Mandalorian*, combined with lower tracking data for the upcoming film *Moana*, prompted the downward revision for the full year.

Revised Projections and Market Impact

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In its updated model, JPMorgan outlined several key adjustments that signal a more cautious view for the theatrical exhibition industry.

• 2026 Box Office: Lowered to $9.65 billion.
• 2027 Box Office: Forecasted at $9.85 billion, reflecting an assumption of 2% growth driven primarily by ticket price increases.
• 2026 Film Slate: The number of projected wide releases was slightly increased to 125, up from 123 previously, compared to 126 in 2025.

Following the industry-wide revision, JPMorgan also lowered its estimates for theater operators Cinemark Holdings (NYSE:CNK) and IMAX Corp. (NYSE:IMAX). The bank noted that the adjustment for IMAX was also influenced by weaker-than-expected results in China, where the second-quarter box office was approximately $35 million below expectations.