Investors Face Key Trade, Regulatory Risks in H2 2026, Wolfe Research Says

The second half of 2026 is unlikely to see the kind of sweeping policy changes that drove markets last year, but investors should brace for significant developments in trade, regulation, and fiscal policy. According to a new analysis from Wolfe Research, a series of deadlines and potential actions out of Washington D.C. could create sector-specific volatility through the end of the year.

Legislative Deadlines and Midterm Gridlock

With Congress shifting into campaign mode ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm elections, the window for passing major legislation is closing, the brokerage noted. However, lawmakers face a critical fiscal deadline to fund the government before Oct. 1 to avoid a shutdown.

Wolfe Research also identified several other items that could see legislative action despite the political environment:

• A defense supplemental spending bill
• Crypto market structure legislation
• China-related provisions within the annual defense authorization bill

Trade and Tariff Reshaping

On the trade front, the Trump administration is expected to continue reshaping its tariff regime following a Supreme Court ruling against the use of IEEPA tariffs. Wolfe Research anticipates that Section 301 tariffs will largely replace the previous framework.

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The note warned that several industries remain at risk of new Section 232 tariffs later this year, including medical technology, robotics, drones, polysilicon, and wind turbines. Separately, negotiations over the USMCA trade pact are expected to continue into late 2026 or early 2027, likely resulting in an updated trilateral agreement with new bilateral arrangements.

Regulatory and Geopolitical Calendar

Investors should also monitor a slate of pending regulatory reforms, with several proposals expected to be finalized late this year or in early 2027. Key areas highlighted by Wolfe include bank capital and liquidity requirements, SEC reporting rules, energy regulations, and healthcare reimbursement policies.

Beyond domestic policy, the firm pointed to several geopolitical milestones that could impact markets. Key dates on the calendar include:

• Aug. 17: Deadline for U.S.-Iran negotiations.
• September: A potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.
• October: Israeli elections.
• November: Taiwanese local elections.

Wolfe Research cautioned that under the current administration, investors should also remain prepared for unexpected policy actions that are not on the known calendar.