Goldman Sachs Cuts Cedar Fair 2026 EBITDA Estimate on Weak Attendance

Goldman Sachs has lowered its full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate for Cedar Fair (NYSE:FUN) to $836 million, citing persistent weakness in park attendance that has extended into the critical third quarter.

Disappointing Visitor Trends

In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs highlighted that Cedar Fair's attendance declined by 9% in the second quarter of 2026, leading to an approximate 30% drop in adjusted EBITDA for the same period. The bank had previously anticipated that easier year-over-year comparisons and new company initiatives would help reverse last year's visitation slump.

While June saw some improvement, the recovery was short-lived. The negative trend has re-emerged in the current quarter, with attendance tracking down 4.8% in the first three weeks of the third quarter, according to the firm. Consequently, Goldman has lowered its third-quarter estimates and sees potential downside to current consensus forecasts for Cedar Fair.

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Broader Industry Headwinds

The challenges may not be isolated to Cedar Fair. Goldman's analysis indicates that foot traffic for competitor United Parks & Resorts (NYSE:PRKS) is also tracking down by approximately 5.6% quarter-to-date. This aligns with recent commentary from Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), which highlighted weakness in the key Orlando market during its latest earnings report.

Despite the soft start to the quarter for the industry, Goldman Sachs stated it expects United Parks & Resorts to report solid second-quarter results, forecasting an adjusted EBITDA of $200 million. However, the bank anticipates a more cautious update from the company on its third-quarter trends. Goldman also noted that United Parks has strategic opportunities, including potential land sales and international licensing deals, that could provide upside for the stock.