Ethereum Tops $2,600, Reaching Multi-Month High Amid Conflicting Market Signals

Ethereum (ETH) surged past the $2,600 mark on September 18 to a multi-month high, but a closer look at exchange and on-chain data reveals a significant divergence, with aggressive selling pressure being absorbed by what appears to be strong, passive demand.

Price Rally Meets Selling Pressure

The price of ETH touched $2,630, its highest point since late January, amid a broader rally in altcoins. However, order flow data from the Binance exchange presents a conflicting narrative. According to a CryptoQuant chart, the exchange recorded a cumulative net selling volume of negative $903 million, indicating that market sell orders—requests for immediate execution—substantially outpaced market buy orders.

This heavy selling occurred while ETH was trading closer to the $2,460 level, before its subsequent rally. The price appreciation in the face of such selling suggests that passive buyers, likely using limit orders to set their entry points, were systematically absorbing the supply. This demand could be originating from other exchanges, institutional trading desks, or on-chain venues not captured in the Binance-specific data.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Supply Constraints

On-chain data provides further context, pointing to increased activity from large holders and significant supply constraints.

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• Whale Activity: Data from analytics firm Santiment shows a rise in transactions valued over $100,000 as the price climbed, indicating that large holders, or "whales," became more active. However, the metric does not specify whether these were buy or sell transactions.
• Staked Supply: Over 43 million ETH, representing approximately 35% of the circulating supply, is currently locked in staking contracts. While not permanently removed, this large volume reduces the immediately tradable supply, which can amplify the price impact of shifts in demand.
• Network Growth: The number of non-empty Ethereum addresses also reached a record 207 million, signaling broad network engagement, though this is not a direct indicator of accumulation.

Outlook Hinges on $2,630 Level

The $2,630 level has now become a critical technical benchmark for traders. A daily close above this price would be needed to confirm a successful breakout and could signal market acceptance of a higher valuation range. If the price can consolidate above this area, it would reinforce a bullish outlook.

Conversely, a swift rejection and fall back below $2,630 would suggest that the aggressive selling pressure was merely postponed, not defeated, and that demand is waning at these highs. The market's ability to hold this level through its first significant wave of profit-taking will be a key test of whether the underlying demand is strong enough to sustain the recent gains.