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Citi Lifts Q3 Brent Crude Forecast to $80 on U.S.-Iran Deal Delays
Summary
Citigroup raised its third-quarter average Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel from $75, citing extended delays in resolving the U.S.-Iran conflict. The bank's longer-term forecasts for late 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged.
Citigroup has revised its average price forecast for Brent crude for the third quarter, raising it to $80 per barrel from a previous estimate of $75. In a note released Friday, the bank attributed the upward revision to persistent delays in resolving geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Revised Near-Term Outlook
The $5 increase in the Q3 forecast reflects growing concerns over the timeline for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement, which could influence the return of Iranian supply to the global market. Despite the current delays, Citi analysts noted they still anticipate an eventual resolution to the conflict.
The bank's longer-term view on oil prices remains unchanged. Citi maintained its forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 at $70 per barrel and its full-year 2027 average price at $65 per barrel, suggesting the current price strength is viewed as temporary.
Broader Market Context
AdThe updated forecast comes as oil prices advanced on Friday. According to market data, key benchmarks posted gains:
- Brent crude futures rose by $1.18, or 1.4%, to $81.79 per barrel.
- U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased by $1.03, or 1.33%, to $78.32 per barrel.
Citi's view aligns with other major financial institutions watching the geopolitical landscape. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs projected that Brent would likely trade within an $80 to $90 per barrel range until there is a definitive outcome in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks or a significant escalation in regional tensions.
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