Bernstein Analysts Predict Bitcoin Will Reach $300,000 by 2029

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have set a new long-term price target for Bitcoin, forecasting the cryptocurrency will reach a peak of $300,000 by the end of 2029. The projection positions Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary of what the firm calls the "currency debasement trade."

The Macro Case for Bitcoin

In a note to clients, analyst Gautam Chhugani argued that the 40-year era of declining interest rates has concluded. Bernstein's core thesis is that governments, burdened by historically high levels of sovereign debt, face mounting pressure to service their obligations. The firm anticipates that rising yields will create a difficult cycle of increasing interest expenses, wider fiscal deficits, and a persistent need for more borrowing.

Faced with a choice between fiscal austerity and currency devaluation, Bernstein believes policymakers will ultimately opt for the latter as the path of least political resistance. In this environment, the firm contends that investors should seek exposure to scarce, hard-to-dilute assets, identifying Bitcoin as the most significant of these.

Cycle Projections and Asset Strength

Bernstein's forecast is based on Bitcoin continuing its historical four-year cycle pattern. The note projects that the market could see a return to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 before reaching the $300,000 peak in 2029.

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The firm's confidence in Bitcoin's resilience is supported by its unique holder structure. Key points from the analysis include:

• Approximately 60% of Bitcoin's supply is held by long-term, price-insensitive owners who did not sell during drawdowns of over 50%.
• Access for both institutional and retail investors continues to expand, providing new channels for capital inflows.

Revised MicroStrategy Outlook

In the same report, Bernstein also adjusted its outlook on MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. The firm lowered its price target on the company's stock to $350 from a previous $450, while maintaining an "Outperform" rating.

Bernstein noted that MicroStrategy's significant holdings, which it estimates at approximately 4% of the total global Bitcoin supply, make it a key vehicle for investors seeking Bitcoin exposure.