Baird Names Corpay, Block, and Mastercard as Top FinTech Picks for Q2 Earnings

Baird has highlighted Corpay, Block, and Mastercard as its top stock picks in the financial technology space heading into the second-quarter 2026 earnings season. The investment firm anticipates a potential "beat and raise" for all three companies, supported by solid industry backdrops and company-specific growth drivers.

Analyst Outlook

According to a note from Baird, sentiment in the FinTech sector is improving as the recent focus on artificial intelligence stocks has become more volatile. The firm noted that valuations for its top picks remain reasonable, particularly for companies delivering over 10% organic growth.

Baird's analysts believe Street estimates for its favored names are conservative, creating opportunities for positive earnings surprises. The firm cited strong underlying business trends and strategic initiatives as key reasons for its optimistic outlook on the upcoming reports.

Company-Specific Catalysts

Baird provided a detailed rationale for each of its top selections, pointing to distinct factors that could drive performance.

Corpay (CPAY)

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Baird sees a potential for Corpay to beat Q2 estimates and raise its outlook, suggesting that 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates could be revised upward by approximately 1%. The firm projects that Corpay's organic revenue growth likely remained above 10% on a constant-macro basis, with EPS growth potentially exceeding 25%. Strength in the Corporate Payments segment and the impact of share buybacks were cited as key contributors.

Block (SQ)

For Jack Dorsey’s Block, Baird expects a beat and raise, with 2026 EPS estimates potentially biased upward by 2% to 4%. The firm projects an acceleration in Square's gross profit growth to 11% (from 9% in Q1) and expects CashApp's gross profit to grow by 33% year-over-year, beating consensus estimates by about 5%. Improved margins from restructuring and a favorable growth mix are also anticipated. Following its analysis, Baird raised its price target on Block to $100.

Mastercard (MA)

Baird anticipates a "solid beat and raise" from the payments giant, pointing to accelerating U.S. volumes reported by major banks in the second quarter. The firm views current Street estimates for cross-border revenue and operating margins as conservative. Baird also suggested that investor sentiment could improve as capital rotates toward high-quality stocks outside of AI and as year-over-year comparisons become easier in the second half of the year. The firm increased its price target on Mastercard to $680.