ASML Lifts 2026 Forecast on Surging AI Chip Equipment Demand

ASML Holding N.V. boosted its full-year 2026 financial forecast for the second time this year, signaling robust demand for its semiconductor manufacturing equipment driven by the global buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. The Dutch company's shares surged in response on Wednesday, lifting other European chip-related stocks.

Upgraded Outlook

ASML provided an updated forecast that significantly exceeds its previous estimates and current analyst expectations. The company said it now projects:

• Full-year 2026 sales between €43 billion and €45 billion, up from a prior range of €36 billion to €40 billion.
• A full-year gross margin of 54% to 56%, compared to the previous forecast of 51% to 53%.

For the upcoming third quarter, ASML guided for sales of €11.5 billion and a gross margin of 56%. According to the source, this is well ahead of a Visible Alpha consensus of €10.37 billion in sales and a 52.1% margin.

AI-Fueled Demand

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The upgraded outlook is a direct result of accelerating investment in AI technology. "AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry’s growth outlook," said Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet in a statement.

The company noted that its memory-related revenue is on track to increase by 75% this year. Demand is particularly strong for ASML's market-leading extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are essential for producing the most advanced chips. ASML is reportedly weighing a capacity expansion to increase EUV system output by roughly 30% in 2027 and again in 2028 to meet high-volume customer orders.

Market Reaction and Context

Investors reacted positively to the news, with ASML shares climbing 5.3% in early Amsterdam trading. The optimism spread to other sector players, including French materials maker Soitec (+3.6%) and German technology group Jenoptik (+5.5%).

The guidance increase was underpinned by strong second-quarter performance, where sales reached €9.33 billion, beating the €8.83 billion consensus forecast compiled by Visible Alpha. Analysts at Bank of America called the Q2 results "robust" and noted the new guidance implies fourth-quarter revenue and profit figures that are substantially above market consensus.