ArcelorMittal Stock Surges on JPMorgan Upgrade, Hopes for EU Tariff Boost

Shares of ArcelorMittal (MT) surged 5.0% to €57.24 on Tuesday after JPMorgan reversed its bearish stance on the steelmaker, upgrading the stock from Underweight to Neutral. The investment bank's move reflects a broader re-evaluation of the European steel sector, driven by new protective trade measures.

JPMorgan Upgrade Sparks Rally

JPMorgan's analysts cited a "structural shift" in the European steel market as the primary reason for the upgrade. The bank argued that new European Union import safeguards, which took effect on July 1, 2026, are beginning to have a tangible impact, restoring pricing power to the region's producers.

The positive sentiment was not limited to ArcelorMittal. In a sector-wide re-rating, JPMorgan also issued double-upgrades for competitors Voestalpine and Salzgitter. Other investment banks have also recently grown more constructive on ArcelorMittal, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to €46.00 and both Barclays and Deutsche Bank lifting their own targets earlier in the week, according to Investing.com.

EU Import Regime a 'Structural Shift'

The catalyst for the renewed optimism is the EU's new tariff-rate quota framework. This updated regime is designed to shield domestic producers from lower-cost imports.

Key features of the new measures include:

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• A reduction in duty-free steel import allocations by approximately 40%.
• A steep 50% tariff imposed on any steel volumes that exceed the new, lower quotas.

Analysts believe these measures will significantly reduce the competitive pressure from imported steel, allowing European companies to command higher prices in the second half of the year. JPMorgan now forecasts earnings growth for ArcelorMittal in 2026 and 2027.

Company-Specific Tailwinds

Beyond the favorable regulatory backdrop in Europe, analysts also pointed to company-specific factors supporting ArcelorMittal. The company is expected to benefit from the ramp-up of its Calvert facility in the U.S. and strong pricing dynamics in North American markets.

Management's confidence is further underscored by an ongoing share buyback program. The company launched a second tranche of the program in late June, authorizing the repurchase of up to 10 million shares, a move that supports the stock's valuation and earnings per share.