Apple's iPhone 18 Demand Questioned as Resale Prices Weaken, Jefferies Says

Early indicators from the secondary market suggest consumer demand for Apple's new iPhone 18 may be softer than for previous models, according to a research note from Jefferies. The investment bank's analysts pointed to weaker resale prices in Hong Kong for the latest high-end iPhones compared to the iPhone 17 at the same point last year.

Resale Market Signals Weaker Demand

Jefferies' analysis, dated Monday, indicates that the iPhone 18 Pro is already trading at a discount across nearly all storage variants in Hong Kong's resale market. Premiums for the top-tier iPhone 18 Pro Max reportedly fell sharply on launch day and have since remained low or declined further.

Key observations from the note include:

• The 256GB 18 Pro Max is the only model maintaining a significant premium, at approximately 8% above Apple's official price.
• In contrast, the 2TB version was trading HK$1,049 below its official price as of Sept. 27.
• Resale premiums for the 18 Pro Max are tracking below those of the 17 Pro Max at the same time last year for all but the 256GB model.

Potential Headwinds and Mixed Data

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Jefferies attributed the potential weakness to several factors, including recent price increases of $400 and $500, which the firm believes may be too high relative to the new models' perceived value. The analysts also noted Apple's switch to lower-cost QLC NAND memory in the 1TB and 2TB versions, which could make the highest-capacity models less attractive to some buyers due to potential performance differences.

However, delivery lead times present a more mixed picture. While lead times for both Pro models fell early last week, they rebounded over the weekend. Jefferies cautioned that this recovery might reflect tighter supply as Apple ramps up production for its upcoming DUO device, rather than a genuine increase in demand. Lead times for the 18 Pro Max were longer year-over-year in the U.S., China, and Hong Kong but shorter in Germany and the U.K.

Broader Context

The report also touches on Apple's forthcoming DUO device, cautioning that its eSIM-only design could be a constraint in China, where users often have multiple phone numbers. Jefferies maintained its "underperform" rating on Apple (AAPL) stock in the note.