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Wheat Futures Climb to Six-Week High on Expectations of Lower USDA Stockpile Report
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rose to a six-week high in Friday trading as the market anticipated a key U.S. government report expected to show tighter domestic supplies. Traders adjusted positions ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) monthly crop data, which is a significant driver for grain market sentiment.
Price Action
Across the complex, wheat contracts climbed between 12 and 14 cents per bushel during the session. The gains were broad-based, affecting different classes of wheat.
- CBOT September soft red winter wheat was last up 13-1/4 cents at $6.33 per bushel.
- K.C. September hard red winter wheat gained 15-3/4 cents to trade at $6.70 per bushel.
- Minneapolis September spring wheat rose 9-1/2 cents to $6.48-1/2 per bushel.
USDA Report in Focus
The primary catalyst for the price move is the market's expectation for the USDA's monthly supply and demand report, scheduled for release at 12 p.m. EDT. According to a poll of analysts, the USDA is forecast to lower its estimate for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks.
AdThe consensus estimate projects ending stocks will be revised down to 714 million bushels from the 744 million bushels projected in June. A reduction in ending stocks, which are the leftover inventories after a marketing year, typically indicates a tighter supply-demand balance and is considered a bullish signal for prices.
Global Factors Add Support
Beyond the anticipated U.S. data, global supply concerns are also underpinning the market. Grain trade association Coceral recently reduced its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union and Britain by 2%, citing adverse heat conditions.
Traders also remain watchful of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Any signs of escalation could impact grain flows from the critical Black Sea region, as both countries are major global exporters.