UN Security Council Targets August 21 for Second Secretary-General Poll

The United Nations Security Council is targeting August 21 for a second informal poll in the selection process for the next U.N. secretary-general, according to Denmark's U.N. ambassador. The move follows an initial vote last week that established former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan as an early frontrunner to succeed António Guterres, who steps down at the end of the year.

Next Steps in Selection

Christina Markus Lassen, the U.N. ambassador for Denmark, which holds the rotating Security Council presidency for August, said on Monday that the council was "aiming for and hoping to schedule" the next poll later this month. She indicated that a final decision is still some way off, suggesting the process will likely extend over several more rounds.

Historically, the selection process can continue into late September or early October. The successor to Guterres will face the significant task of revitalizing the U.N. amid pressure to reform what critics describe as a costly and inefficient bureaucracy.

The Race So Far

A first "straw poll" conducted last week among the 15 council members showed Rebeca Grynspan with a narrow lead. The other leading candidates identified in the initial poll were:

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• Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, former Foreign Minister of Guyana
• Rafael Grossi, the Argentine head of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency

Other declared candidates include former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Maria Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu. More candidates could still enter the race.

The Veto is Key

To be recommended to the 193-member U.N. General Assembly, a candidate must secure at least nine votes in the Security Council and, crucially, avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members (P5): China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Early straw polls use identical ballots to gauge overall support. In later rounds, the P5 use color-coded ballots, which reveal if a candidate has received a "discourage" vote from a permanent member, effectively signaling a veto. Ambassador Lassen said she did not expect color-coded ballots to be used in the August 21 poll, stating, "I’m not sure we’re there yet."