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UBS Forecasts Norwegian Krone to Strengthen Against Euro Through Mid-2027
UBS maintains a bearish outlook on the EUR/NOK currency pair, forecasting a steady appreciation of the Norwegian krone against the euro through the middle of 2027. The bank's analysts recommend that clients enter short positions on the pair at current levels or sell on any upward movements.
Forecast Details
In a note to clients, UBS laid out a specific path for the krone's expected gains. The bank projects the EUR/NOK exchange rate will fall progressively over the next year.
- September 2026: 10.80
- December 2026: 10.70
- March 2027: 10.60
- June 2027: 10.50
AdRationale and Context
UBS attributes its forecast to a supportive external environment that it believes will favor renewed strength in the Norwegian currency. The bank also highlighted the pair's already attractive carry, a strategy where investors profit from the interest rate differential between the two currencies.
The bullish call on the krone comes despite a recent pullback in its performance. According to UBS, the NOK has retraced approximately half of its year-to-date gains versus the euro, a move pressured by falling oil prices and heightened expectations for global interest rate hikes. However, the bank expects these headwinds to be temporary and for the krone to resume its outperformance against the euro.