Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire 'Over,' Stoking Oil Market Volatility

President Donald Trump said Friday that a ceasefire with Iran reached last month was “OVER,” though he stated the U.S. has agreed to continue talks at Tehran's request. The declaration follows a renewed wave of hostilities in the Persian Gulf that has rattled global energy markets.

In a post on the Truth Social platform, Trump wrote, "The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue ’talks.’ We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!" However, Iran disputed this characterization, with its Foreign Ministry spokesperson telling state television that Tehran had not requested talks but had agreed to host a Qatari mediator.

Renewed Hostilities and Diplomatic Demands

The announcement comes after a volatile week that saw attacks on three Qatari and Saudi commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. responded with strikes on Iranian military sites, which in turn prompted Iranian strikes against U.S. military locations in Gulf states.

According to Iran’s Health Ministry, U.S. strikes on Wednesday and Thursday resulted in at least 17 fatalities and 115 injuries across six Iranian cities. Amid the conflict, senior U.S. officials said Washington is demanding that Iran publicly guarantee safe passage for all vessels through the vital waterway. Regional mediators from Qatar and Oman are reportedly engaging with officials in Tehran to de-escalate the situation.

Impact on Energy Markets

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The geopolitical turmoil has directly impacted energy prices, adding a significant risk premium to crude oil. After weeks of declines, oil prices posted their largest weekly increase in eight weeks. The instability threatens a critical artery for global energy, as the Strait of Hormuz handled about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments before the conflict began in February.

In the U.S., the effects are being felt in refined product markets. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week. According to Dow Jones Energy, gasoline stocks are now running below seasonal norms across all U.S. regions, signaling potential pressure on consumer prices.

Geopolitical Context

The conflict, which began on February 28 with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, has disrupted global supply chains and heightened fears of a broader economic downturn. The situation is further complicated by political uncertainty within Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an airstrike on the first day of the war. His son and reported successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not been seen in public since, fueling speculation about the country's leadership.