Truckload Rates Poised for Seasonal Gains, Goldman Sachs Says

Trucking stocks may be positioned for a rebound as historical data suggests truckload spot rates typically increase in the final months of the year, according to a new analysis from Goldman Sachs. The investment bank noted that this seasonal strength could provide a tailwind for sector equities that have recently pulled back from their summer highs.

Seasonal Patterns Point to Rate Hikes

Goldman Sachs' analysis of historical trends shows that trucking spot rates tend to accelerate through September. This momentum typically builds further during the November and December holiday freight and shopping season.

This pattern in freight rates has historically correlated with the performance of trucking stocks. According to the firm, equity performance strength often re-emerges in October and November, following the rise in spot rates.

Sector Performance and Recent Pullback

Trucking equities have had a strong year, returning 31.5% year-to-date through August, according to the report. This performance significantly outpaced the 21.0% gain in the broader transportation sector (excluding trucking) and the 12.0% return of the S&P 500 over the same period.

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The sector's gains were largely driven by a rise in spot trucking rates during the first half of 2026. However, as spot rates recently declined, the stocks have retreated by an average of 16.0% from their peaks in June and July, setting a new entry point if seasonal trends hold.

Analyst Ratings

In light of its analysis, Goldman Sachs stated it maintains its Buy ratings on several key players in the sector. The firm's coverage includes:

• Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX)
• Werner Enterprises (WERN)
• Schneider National (SNDR)