SpaceX in Talks for 80,000 Cell Sites, Facing $100B Network Decision, BNP Says

SpaceX is in discussions with tower companies to secure at least 80,000 cell sites across the United States, according to a Bloomberg report cited in a recent analysis by BNP Paribas. The investment bank's analysts view the move as a final decision point for SpaceX, which must choose between building its own capital-intensive mobile network or pursuing a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) agreement with an existing carrier.

A $100 Billion Price Tag

BNP Paribas estimates that building a proprietary mobile network would require SpaceX to spend at least $100 billion before generating any revenue, a figure that excludes spectrum acquisition and financing costs. The bank's analysis provides a detailed breakdown of the potential expenses.

• Capital Expenditures (CapEx): A total of $75 billion, which includes:
• $40 billion for a constellation of 15,000 mobile satellites and related ground infrastructure.
• $25 billion for 80,000 macro cell sites, estimated at $300,000 per site.
• $5 billion for 50,000 small cells and other network elements.
• $5 billion to establish a nationwide retail presence.
• Operating Costs (OpEx): An estimated $30 billion in cumulative operating expenses over a five-year buildout period, eventually scaling to over $8 billion annually.

This projection assumes a deployment rate of 15,000 towers per year, according to the bank's note.

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Market and Partner Implications

The negotiations reportedly involve the largest U.S. tower operators. American Tower and Crown Castle collectively own approximately 80,000 towers, while SBA Communications operates another 17,000. BNP Paribas expects SpaceX is in talks with all three, as well as with other operators like Vertical Bridge.

Analysts highlighted the gravity of this step, noting that signing take-or-pay master lease agreements with tower firms would represent a massive, long-term financial commitment. Such contracts typically cannot be canceled without paying fees equivalent to the lifetime lease costs. This makes the current negotiations the "final opportunity" for SpaceX to opt for an MVNO deal before committing to the infrastructure buildout.

As an alternative, BNP Paribas suggested that telecommunications carriers, particularly T-Mobile, could offer SpaceX a wholesale network slice for future connectivity needs, such as for artificial intelligence devices. In such a partnership, the carrier could in turn gain the ability to resell SpaceX's Starlink broadband services.