SoFi Stock Braces for 8.7% Post-Earnings Move, Options Data Shows

The options market is anticipating a significant price swing for SoFi Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:SOFI) following its upcoming earnings report. Traders are pricing in a potential move of 8.7% in either direction for the stock after the company announces its results before the market opens on July 29, according to options data compiled by Bloomberg.

Market Expectations

This 8.7% implied move is a measure of expected volatility derived from the pricing of SoFi's options contracts. It reflects the market's consensus on how much the stock might move but does not indicate the direction of the potential swing. Investors and traders use this figure as a benchmark for gauging potential post-earnings risk and opportunity.

A History of Volatility

SoFi's stock has a recent history of moving more than the options market predicted, particularly to the downside. An analysis of the past eight earnings reports shows the actual stock move surpassed the implied volatility on three occasions.

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Notably, the last two earnings announcements saw significant deviations:

• April 29: The stock fell 17.6%, far exceeding the 9.7% move implied by options.
• January: The stock declined 12.6%, nearly double the 6.8% implied move.

In a previous quarter, the stock also saw an outsized positive reaction, jumping 24.1% compared to an implied move of 12.1%. This history suggests that while the options market provides a guide, SoFi's earnings results have the potential to deliver significant surprises to investors.