Russian Oil Refining Plummets to 21-Year Low After Drone Attacks, Kpler Reports

Russian oil refining volumes have plummeted to a 21-year low, crippled by a campaign of Ukrainian drone strikes that has taken a significant portion of the country's processing capacity offline, according to data released Tuesday by commodities firm Kpler.

Refining Output Hits Two-Decade Low

Crude processing runs in Russia have fallen to approximately 3.80 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest level in more than two decades, Kpler reported. The damage has left an estimated 1.5 million to 2.0 million bpd of processing capacity effectively offline.

The data firm's analysis for July indicates that the combination of attacked facilities and scheduled maintenance has pushed total refinery downtime to around 4.3 million bpd. This figure represents roughly 58% of Russia’s total refining capacity, highlighting the severe impact on the country's downstream sector.

Drone Strikes Target Critical Infrastructure

The sharp decline in output is a direct result of sustained drone attacks that, according to Kpler, have affected at least 25 Russian refineries since August 2025. The strikes have damaged a wide range of critical infrastructure beyond initial distillation units.

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Kpler noted the attacks have also impacted secondary processing units—such as fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs), hydrocrackers, and catalytic reformers—as well as storage tanks and pipelines. This widespread damage compounds the disruption and complicates repair efforts.

Subdued Outlook and Market Impact

Looking ahead, Kpler anticipates that Russian refinery operations will remain "largely subdued" through the third quarter, with only a limited recovery expected. The prolonged outages reduce Russia's ability to supply global markets with refined products like diesel and gasoline, potentially tightening fuel supplies.

A modest rebound in crude runs to around 4.3 million bpd is projected for August as some seasonal maintenance concludes. However, Kpler cautioned that "continued drone strikes present downside risks to this forecast," suggesting further disruptions are a distinct possibility.