OPEC+ Reportedly Planning Modest September Output Hike Before Pausing Increases

The OPEC+ alliance of oil producers plans to approve a production quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September before pausing further output hikes for the remainder of the year, according to sources cited by Reuters. This move would complete the group's phased unwinding of voluntary supply cuts agreed upon in 2023.

Finalizing the Rollback

The planned September increase is the final step in rolling back a 1.65 million bpd supply cut that the group's core members initiated last year. The decision, expected to be formalized on Sunday, involves the seven leading members of the alliance: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman.

While these members have been raising their monthly production quotas for most of this year, the actual increases in supply to the market have been limited. Sources note that geopolitical factors, including the wars in Ukraine and Iran, have disrupted exports from Russia, Kazakhstan, and the Gulf, meaning many of the previous quota hikes remained largely on paper.

A Pause Amid Complex Negotiations

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Following the September adjustment, OPEC+ is expected to hold production levels steady as it enters what sources describe as potentially difficult negotiations over future output baselines. The alliance is conducting a review of each member's production capacity, which will be used to establish new quotas for 2027.

This pause would leave roughly 2 million bpd of deeper cuts, which date back to 2022, in place. The upcoming talks on new baselines are a critical point for the group's internal cohesion, as some members, including Iraq, are reportedly pushing for higher individual quotas to reflect their increased production capabilities.

Market Context

The strategic pause comes as the group navigates a shifting landscape. The United Arab Emirates, a major producer, left the OPEC organization in May 2026, altering the group's dynamics. For oil markets, the decision to halt increases after September signals an intent to maintain supply discipline while the alliance resolves internal disagreements over future market share.