OPEC+ Poised to Maintain Current Oil Output Policy, Sources Say

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, is expected to maintain its current oil output policy for October at a meeting scheduled for Sunday, according to two sources familiar with the discussions who spoke to Reuters.

Quota Review Delays Output Decision

The primary reason for holding production steady is the group's need to agree on new output quotas before deciding on future supply steps. Sources indicate that OPEC+ must first review the oil production capacity of its member nations to establish new output baselines for 2027, which serve as the foundation for individual country quotas.

This complex debate over baselines is anticipated to take place later in 2026. Consequently, the producer group is likely to pause any further output increases for the fourth quarter, according to the sources.

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Production Context

In August, OPEC+ finalized the phased reversal of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut that was initially agreed upon in 2023. However, a separate, larger layer of production cuts remains in place for most of the 21-country alliance and is set to run until the end of 2026.

Despite recent agreements to increase supply, the group's actual production has remained significantly below its official targets. The source material attributes this shortfall to disruptions from the Iran war, which have impacted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and limited the group's influence on market prices.