Kodiak Sciences Stock Soars on Positive AMD Trial Data, Options See Volatility Crush

Kodiak Sciences Inc. (KOD) shares surged more than 160% after the company announced positive topline data from its Phase 3 DAYBREAK trial for a treatment for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The successful trial results triggered a dramatic repricing in the company's stock and a significant shift in its options market dynamics.

Positive Trial Results Fuel Rally

Kodiak announced pre-market that its drug candidate, Zenkuda (tarcocimab tedromer), met its primary endpoint in the study. The trial demonstrated that Zenkuda was non-inferior to aflibercept, a standard treatment, with a key finding that 54% of patients could be treated on a six-month dosing schedule. A second drug, KSI-501, also met its primary endpoint for vision.

The news sent the company's stock soaring. After opening around $61, shares were trading at approximately $86.10 by midday, a gain of over 166%, according to Investing.com.

Options Market Signals Post-Event Unwinding

The most significant development in the options market was a classic case of implied volatility (IV) crush. Following the data release, 3-month implied volatility collapsed by 66.41 percentage points to 108.64%. This indicates that the massive uncertainty premium priced into options ahead of the binary clinical trial event has evaporated now that the outcome is known.

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Analysis of the options flow suggests the record volume was driven primarily by the closing of existing positions rather than new directional bets:

• Put Volume: A record 16,483 put contracts traded. The bulk of this activity was concentrated in deep out-of-the-money strikes, such as the October $50 and $25 puts, suggesting traders were closing out now-worthless bearish hedges at a loss.
• Call Volume: High volume in in-the-money call spreads and contracts, like the $70 calls, points to investors taking profits on bullish bets that paid off handsomely.
• New Positions: The most meaningful new activity appeared to be the opening of 1,232 contracts for the October $70 puts. This likely represents investors buying downside protection after the stock's sharp, triple-digit rally.

Looking Ahead

With the positive DAYBREAK results in hand, Kodiak Sciences plans to submit a Biologics License Application (BLA) for Zenkuda in the fourth quarter of 2026. The company's next major clinical catalyst is the expected release of Phase 3 PEAK data in December 2026, which will keep investor focus on its ongoing pipeline development.