Greggs Shares Surge After Bakery Chain Upgrades Profit Forecast

Shares in British bakery chain Greggs surged on Monday after the company released a better-than-expected third-quarter trading update and upgraded its full-year profit outlook, signaling a strong recovery in summer sales.

The stock climbed as much as 7.1% to trade at 2,007.9 pence, touching a session high of 2,046p, which matched its 52-week peak.

Sales Growth Accelerates

Greggs reported that total sales grew 7.7% in the 13 weeks ending September 26. A key metric for investors, like-for-like sales in company-managed shops, rose by 3.4% during the period.

This marks a significant acceleration from the 2.1% like-for-like growth recorded in the first half of the year. According to the company's update, the improved performance was driven by the launch of new products, including iced drinks and revamped salads, as well as more settled weather conditions in August and September.

Profit Upgrade and Restructuring

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The primary catalyst for the share price rally was the company's improved financial guidance. Greggs now expects its full-year 2026 outcome to be "modestly improved" compared to its previous forecast, which had anticipated underlying pretax profit to be in line with the prior year's £172 million.

Alongside the trading update, Greggs announced a manufacturing restructuring plan. The proposal includes closing four production sites over the next two and a half years. The company estimates this will incur a total cash cost of approximately £60 million but is expected to generate around £20 million in annual pre-tax operating savings once completed.

Market Context

The strong company-specific news was the dominant driver for the stock's outperformance. The update provided investors with a powerful combination of accelerating sales, an unexpected profit upgrade, and a clear plan for future cost savings.

Monday's surge continues a significant recovery for the stock, which is now up more than 40% from its 52-week low of 1,408p.