Goldman Sachs Trims Smartphone Unit Forecasts, Raises Market Value Outlook on Premium Shift

Goldman Sachs has lowered its global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026 through 2028, citing ongoing cost pressures and a consumer shift toward high-end models. However, the investment bank simultaneously raised its market value projections, anticipating that higher average selling prices will more than offset the decline in unit volumes.

Shifting Volume and Value

In a note published Wednesday, Goldman Sachs revised its global smartphone volume projections downward, signaling expectations for a flatter market in terms of unit growth. The bank attributed the change to persistent cost pressures and the increasing market share of premium devices, which are less sensitive to price fluctuations.

The new shipment estimates are as follows:

• 2026: 1.1 billion units (a reduction of 1 million from the previous forecast)
• 2027: 1.2 billion units (a reduction of 8 million)
• 2028: 1.2 billion units (a reduction of 0.2 million)

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Despite the lower unit count, Goldman raised its outlook for the total value of the smartphone market. The firm now projects market value will reach $624 billion in 2026, $655 billion in 2027, and $674 billion in 2028, representing year-over-year growth of 8%, 5%, and 3%, respectively. This increase is expected to be driven by higher average selling prices (ASPs) from rising memory costs and strong demand for phones priced above $600.

Premium and Foldable Segments Lead Growth

The forecast underscores a key trend in the industry: market premiumization. As new form factors and advanced features create new use cases, consumers are increasingly opting for more expensive devices. This dynamic is expected to continue supporting revenue growth for manufacturers even if overall shipment volumes stagnate.

Goldman Sachs remains positive on the adoption of foldable phones, which it sees as a key driver of this premium trend. While the bank trimmed its specific forecasts for the category, it still anticipates significant growth, citing new product launches from major manufacturers, including a potential foldable iPhone. The firm's revised estimates project global foldable phone penetration will reach 3.1% in 2026, 5.7% in 2027, and 6.5% in 2028.