Codelco Expects Flat Copper Output, Missing 2030 Target, Chairman Says

Chile’s state-run copper miner Codelco anticipates its production will remain flat in the coming years, a significant revision from previous long-term targets, Chairman Bernardo Fontaine said Wednesday. The forecast suggests the world's largest copper producer will struggle to ramp up output amid operational challenges, a development that could impact global supply dynamics.

Production Targets Revised

Speaking before a congressional committee, Fontaine stated it is "very possible that it sits at a production rate quite similar to the one it has today." This outlook casts doubt on the company's ability to meet its ambitious target of 1.7 million metric tons a year by 2030.

Codelco is working to recover from a slump in 2022 and 2023 that saw its output fall to two-decade lows. Last year, production from the company's own mines was 1.33 million tons. Fontaine attributed the stagnant forecast to unexpected delays and increased costs associated with its "structural projects," which are designed to combat declining ore grades at its aging deposits.

Operational Headwinds and Scrutiny

The revised guidance comes as Codelco faces external scrutiny. Chile's copper agency, Cochilco, is expected to release a preliminary audit of the company's production in September. The review was initiated following questions over whether Codelco improperly included some 20,000 metric tons of copper in a 2025 production report.

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These challenges highlight the immense difficulty major miners face in maintaining, let alone increasing, production from mature assets. For the global copper market, stagnant output from a key supplier like Codelco could contribute to tighter supply conditions and provide underlying support for prices.

A Shift in Investment Focus

Amid the difficulties with its existing projects, Fontaine signaled a potential shift in investment strategy. He pointed to the El Abra copper mine as a strong candidate for future investment. Codelco holds a 49% stake in the mine, which is majority-owned and operated by U.S.-based Freeport McMoRan.

Freeport has a planned $7.5 billion expansion project for the El Abra site. "Perhaps that is the best project where we could invest whatever resources we are able to get," Fontaine told the committee, suggesting a strategic pivot toward joint ventures to boost future output.