Citigroup Lifts Q3 Brent Crude Forecast to $80 on U.S.-Iran Tensions

Citigroup on Friday raised its average price forecast for Brent crude oil for the third quarter to $80 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $75. The bank attributed the revision to the expectation of a more prolonged timeline for resolving the conflict between the United States and Iran.

Revised Outlook

While lifting its near-term projection, Citigroup stated that it still anticipates an eventual settlement between the two nations. The bank's longer-term forecasts were left unchanged, with Brent crude prices projected to average $70 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $65 per barrel for the full year 2027, according to the note.

The adjustment reflects growing uncertainty in the market over the five-month-long conflict, which has become a key factor influencing supply expectations. Earlier in the week, Goldman Sachs forecast that Brent would trade within an $80 to $90 per barrel range until either a new U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement is confirmed or the conflict sees further escalation.

Market Impact

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Oil prices traded higher on Friday, supported by the unclear outlook for U.S.-Iran negotiations and market concerns stemming from a U.S. federal jobs report. The price action underscores how sensitive crude markets are to geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

As of 15:57 GMT, key benchmarks were up:

• Brent crude futures rose $1.18, or 1.4%, to $81.79 per barrel.
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed $1.03, or 1.33%, to $78.32 per barrel.