China's Solar Export Volume Fell 15% in June Amid Weak Demand, BofA Says

Chinese solar export volumes fell by 15% year-over-year in June 2026, marking the second consecutive monthly decline and signaling softening overseas demand, according to a Bank of America analysis of Chinese customs data. Despite the drop in volume, the total export value increased by 9%, indicating a complex pricing environment across the solar supply chain.

Module Shipments Slump

The decline was most pronounced in solar modules, the largest component of exports. Module export volumes fell 20% year-over-year to 17 gigawatts (GW) in June, though this was a slight improvement from the 37% drop recorded in May. The value of these module exports, however, rose 12% to $2.2 billion.

Europe was the primary driver of the weakness, with its imports of Chinese modules plunging 30% YoY to 6.9 GW. Other key regions also saw significant declines:

• Middle East and Africa: Imports fell 30% to 3.2 GW.
• Americas: Imports decreased 8% to 1.9 GW.
• Asia-Pacific: Shipments recovered to flat growth after a 31% decline in May.

Mixed Performance Across Components

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Performance varied significantly for other solar components. While solar cell export volumes decreased 11% to 6.6 GW, their value surged 22% to $339 million. The United States notably became the third-largest destination for Chinese cells, though BofA noted a discrepancy between Chinese export data and U.S. import figures, suggesting potential transshipments.

In contrast, wafer exports saw a dramatic price collapse. Although volumes edged up 2% YoY to 4.4 GW, the corresponding export value plummeted 44% to just $98 million. In a bright spot, the value of solar inverter exports grew 34%, driven by strong demand from Australia and Germany.

Market Context and Outlook

The data points to a challenging period for the global solar market, with demand contracting in key regions like Europe. The divergence between falling volumes and rising values for some products suggests manufacturers are passing on higher costs, while the collapse in wafer prices indicates oversupply in parts of the supply chain.

Adding to potential headwinds, industry group SolarPower Europe has warned that proposed EU restrictions on Chinese inverters could impact over 28 GW of solar demand through 2030. Meanwhile, separate data showed U.S. imports of solar modules and cells had already fallen sharply in May, down 48% and 62% year-over-year, respectively.