CBOT Wheat Futures Hit Six-Week High on USDA Report Anticipation

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rose to a six-week high in early trading on Friday, with market participants adjusting positions ahead of a highly anticipated monthly crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Price Action and Expectations

Contracts for wheat climbed between 12 and 14 cents per bushel as traders anticipated bullish data from the USDA, which is scheduled to release its report at 12 p.m. EDT. According to a poll of analysts, the market expects the agency to lower its forecast for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks.

The consensus estimate projects ending stocks will be revised down to 714 million bushels from the 744 million bushels forecasted in June. A reduction in ending stocks typically signals a tighter supply outlook, which can be supportive for prices.

Specific contract movements included:

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• CBOT September soft red winter wheat was last up 13-1/4 cents at $6.33 per bushel.
• K.C. September hard red winter wheat rose 15-3/4 cents to $6.70 per bushel.
• Minneapolis September spring wheat gained 9-1/2 cents to $6.48-1/2 per bushel.

Global Supply Factors

Beyond the upcoming USDA report, traders are also weighing other factors impacting the global supply landscape. Grain trade association Coceral recently reduced its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union and Britain by 2%, citing heat conditions in the region.

Furthermore, geopolitical tensions remain a key focus. Market participants continue to monitor for any potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, as both nations are major global exporters of grain and any disruption could have significant implications for international trade flows.