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Apple Seeing Stronger-Than-Expected iPhone Upgrade Cycle, Evercore ISI Survey Finds
Summary
A recent consumer survey by Evercore ISI suggests Apple is experiencing a robust iPhone upgrade cycle, driven by demand for premium models and a significant increase in average selling prices.
A new survey from Evercore ISI indicates that Apple Inc. is experiencing a more robust iPhone upgrade cycle than previously anticipated, fueled by strong consumer interest in its highest-tier models and a significant potential for price increases.
In a note to investors, the investment bank cited its annual survey of nearly 4,000 U.S. consumers, which revealed a "better-than-expected iPhone refresh cycle" is underway.
Premium Models Drive Demand
The survey highlights a clear preference for Apple's premium offerings. According to Evercore ISI, the top-end models are leading the charge, with the firm noting, "Pro Max Remains King."
Key findings on consumer purchase intent include:
- 53% of respondents plan to purchase an iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max.
- 32% specifically intend to buy the Pro Max model, an increase from 29% in the previous year's survey.
AdDemand appears to be driven largely by consumers with older devices, as 67% of respondents cited an aging iPhone as their reason for upgrading, a sharp rise from 48% last year. In contrast, interest in the new foldable iPhone Duo was more subdued at 14%, though Evercore expects this figure to rise closer to its mid-October launch.
Pricing Poised for Significant Growth
Beyond unit sales, the survey points to a substantial financial tailwind from rising prices. Evercore ISI forecasts that pricing could increase by more than 20%, driven by a combination of higher list prices, the consumer shift toward more expensive models, and a preference for larger memory configurations.
The firm sees average selling prices (ASPs) potentially rising by about 28% as Apple introduces new 2-terabyte options for its Pro and Duo models. Based on these trends, Evercore ISI suggested there is potential upside to Wall Street's consensus estimates for Apple's fiscal 2027 revenue growth, which currently stand at around 7%. The bank reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Apple stock and raised its price target to $380.
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