Africa Faces $10-20 Billion Economic Hit From 'Super' El Niño, AfDB Warns

An impending "super" El Niño weather pattern is expected to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion economic blow on affected African countries, a senior official at the African Development Bank (AfDB) told Reuters. The severe climate event threatens to trigger mass migration and undermine food security across the continent.

Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, stated that the phenomenon could reduce the GDP of heavily impacted nations by 1% to 2% on average. This represents the first major financial impact estimate for the current El Niño cycle provided by a multilateral development bank.

Economic and Financial Risks

Forecasters are warning that current Pacific Ocean warming trends could develop into one of the strongest El Niño events on record, bringing severe droughts, floods, and storms. Beyond the immediate threat to agriculture and water supplies, the event poses significant risks to national finances. Damage to critical infrastructure could strain government budgets and impair the ability of cash-strapped countries to service related debt.

Nyong described a potential "climate finance trap," where governments are forced to divert funds from essential services like health, education, and infrastructure to manage climate-related crises. The AfDB has already estimated that African farmers are facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while fisheries productivity is projected to fall by 1% to 4% due to rising sea temperatures and storms.

Soaring Adaptation Costs

Ad

The AfDB is now escalating its assessment of Africa's climate adaptation finance needs. Nyong estimated the continent will require as much as $100 billion this year alone, a sharp increase from a previous forecast of $50 billion, with the El Niño event accounting for an additional $30 billion to $50 billion in required funding.

This need starkly contrasts with available international support. A United Nations report estimated that by 2035, developing countries will collectively need around $365 billion annually for climate adaptation, yet international public adaptation finance totaled just $26 billion in 2023. In response, the AfDB is planning a bank-wide seminar in September to assess the El Niño's impact on its investments and stands ready to restructure projects to support affected nations.

Humanitarian and Market Impact

The economic shocks are expected to be accompanied by a severe humanitarian crisis. The AfDB has identified Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria as countries that could face particularly severe consequences.

Nyong warned of "mass migration" as resource shortages intensify, noting that the price of maize—a key food staple—is expected to double in many affected regions. This could exacerbate instability and competition for resources, further straining vulnerable economies. "It is cheaper to build a fence around a precipice than to pay for expensive ambulances to wait at the bottom," Nyong said, emphasizing the need for proactive investment in climate resilience.