Wheat Futures Hit Six-Week High on Expectations of Tighter U.S. Supply

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) surged to a six-week high on Friday as traders adjusted positions ahead of a critical U.S. government report on crop supply and demand.

Pre-Report Price Action

Prices for CBOT wheat contracts climbed between 12 and 14 cents per bushel in early trading, reflecting bullish sentiment in the market. The gains pushed futures to levels not seen for six weeks.

Specific contract movements included:

• The most-active CBOT September soft red winter wheat contract was last up 13-1/4 cents at $6.33 per bushel.
• K.C. September hard red winter wheat rose 15-3/4 cents to $6.70 per bushel.
• Minneapolis September spring wheat gained 9-1/2 cents to $6.48-1/2 per bushel.

USDA Forecast in Focus

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The primary driver for the rally is market anticipation for the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) monthly data, scheduled for release at 12 p.m. EDT. A poll of analysts indicates that the market expects the USDA to lower its forecast for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks.

The consensus estimate is for ending stocks to be revised down to 714 million bushels from the 744 million projected in June. A reduction in ending stocks, which are the leftover inventories at the end of a marketing year, would signal a tighter domestic supply outlook and is typically supportive of higher prices.

Global Supply Concerns

Broader international factors are also underpinning the strength in wheat prices. Grain trade association Coceral recently reduced its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union and Britain by 2%, citing adverse heat conditions.

Furthermore, market participants continue to monitor geopolitical tensions related to the Russia-Ukraine war. Both nations are major global grain exporters, and any signs of escalation could threaten supply flows from the critical Black Sea region.