US LNG Exports to Add $1.4 Trillion to GDP by 2040, S&P Study Finds

U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are projected to contribute nearly $1.4 trillion to the nation's gross domestic product through 2040, establishing the sector as the country's second-largest net export industry within five years, according to a new study from S&P Global Energy.

Economic Projections

The report outlines a significant economic expansion driven by the LNG sector, fueled by an anticipated increase in investment following the recent removal of a federal pause on new export approvals. Total investment across the U.S. LNG supply chain is forecast to exceed $1 trillion through 2040.

Key financial projections from the S&P study include:

• Total revenue: $2.9 trillion
• Labor income: Nearly $630 billion
• Tax generation: $206 billion

Growing Market Share and Demand

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The study highlights the rapidly growing scale of U.S. LNG operations. The country became the first to export more than 100 million metric tons in a single year in 2025, supported by new production facilities. Based on current trends, the U.S. could supply one-third of the global LNG market within five years.

This export boom is expected to double the domestic demand for feedgas—the natural gas destined for liquefaction—to 36 billion cubic feet per day by 2031, according to the report.

Price Impact and Global Implications

While beneficial for the broader economy, the increased demand is projected to have a modest impact on domestic consumers. The study estimates that average household natural gas costs will rise by 1.6% between 2026 and 2031.

The report also underscores the strategic importance of U.S. supply for global energy stability. S&P Global Energy warned that if the planned U.S. export capacity is not realized, LNG prices in Europe and Asia could increase by as much as 50%.