US Light Vehicle Replacement Tire Shipments Rose 3.8% in June

U.S. replacement tire shipments for light vehicles rose 3.8% year-over-year in June 2026, marking a recovery from the 2.9% decline recorded in May. The data, released by the US Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) on July 13, provides a key indicator of consumer demand and inventory levels in the automotive aftermarket.

Data Highlights and Analyst View

According to an analysis by Morgan Stanley, the June shipment figures suggest that inventory adjustments at dealerships and distribution channels are nearing completion. The firm described the development as a neutral event for the tire industry.

The USTMA report showed mixed results across different segments for June:

• Light Vehicle Replacement: +3.8%
• Commercial Truck Replacement: -7.3%
• Light Vehicle Original Equipment (OE): -1.4%
• Commercial Truck Original Equipment (OE): +2.1%

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Broader Context and Outlook

Despite the rebound in June, the broader trend for the first half of the year remains negative. Total light vehicle replacement tire shipments for the January-to-June period were down 4.6% compared to the same period in 2025. Similarly, commercial truck replacement tire sales saw a 12.9% decline over the first six months of the year, although the June figure of -7.3% showed a sequential improvement.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that the USTMA data does not capture all market activity, as it excludes imported tires from non-member companies. The firm highlighted that low-price imports remain a significant factor for investors to monitor. Macroeconomic factors, including crude oil price fluctuations impacting raw material costs and gasoline prices influencing vehicle mileage, continue to affect the tire replacement cycle.