Upstart Options Market Braces for 12% Swing on November 3 Earnings

The options market is anticipating a significant price swing for Upstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) following its upcoming earnings report, pricing in a potential move of 12% in either direction. The fintech company is scheduled to release its results on November 3, before the market opens.

Market Expectations

This expected price change is derived from the implied volatility in Upstart's options contracts and reflects traders' consensus on the potential for share price movement after the company discloses its quarterly performance and forward guidance. The figure, based on data compiled by Bloomberg, serves as a key gauge of anticipated volatility for investors and traders.

Historical Volatility on Earnings

Upstart's stock has a history of dramatic reactions to its earnings announcements. According to the data, the actual price change has surpassed the options-implied move in four of the last eight reporting periods, highlighting the potential for outsized swings.

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Some of the most notable past reactions include:

• On February 11, the stock surged 40.5%, more than double the implied move of 19.7%.
• On November 7, shares jumped 58.4% against an expected move of 19.2%.
• Conversely, on May 6, the stock fell only 3.5% when a much larger 21.7% move was anticipated.

In its most recent report on August 4, the stock's reaction was more muted than expected, with a price change of 9.9% compared to an implied move of 14.1%. This mixed history underscores the uncertainty surrounding the stock's post-earnings performance.