Trump Ends Iran Ceasefire But Agrees to Talks, Fueling Oil Market Volatility

President Donald Trump announced Friday that a month-old ceasefire with Iran is "over," while also stating that both nations have agreed to continue diplomatic talks. The mixed signals come after a week of escalating military exchanges in the Gulf that has rattled energy markets and pushed oil prices significantly higher.

Renewed Hostilities End Truce

In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the U.S. agreed to Iran's request to continue talks but stated, "in no uncertain terms, that the Cease Fire is OVER!" Iran's state television disputed this account, reporting that Tehran had not requested talks but had agreed to host a Qatari mediator to de-escalate tensions, according to Reuters.

The announcement follows a sharp escalation of the five-month conflict. This week saw attacks on three Qatari and Saudi commercial tankers, which prompted U.S. strikes on Iranian sites. Iran then responded with its own strikes on U.S. military installations in Gulf states. According to Iran’s Health Ministry, the U.S. strikes killed at least 17 people and wounded 115.

Focus on Strait of Hormuz, Oil Markets

The renewed conflict has amplified investor concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies that carried approximately one-fifth of the world's oil before the war. The United States is demanding that Iran publicly commit to halting attacks on shipping and ensure all lanes remain open, senior U.S. officials said Friday.

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Geopolitical risk in the region has had a direct impact on commodity prices. Crude oil futures posted their biggest weekly rise in eight weeks, reversing recent declines and heightening fears that the conflict could throttle energy supplies and contribute to a global economic downturn.

Diplomatic Efforts Amid Threats

Despite the end of the ceasefire, diplomatic efforts are reportedly ongoing, with Qatari negotiators meeting officials in Tehran on Friday. The interim deal reached last month was intended to pave the way toward a permanent end to the conflict, which began on February 28.

However, the rhetoric from Washington has also intensified. In separate posts, Trump warned that the U.S. military was prepared to launch strikes if Iran attempted to assassinate him, citing U.S. media reports of an Iranian plot. He stated that "1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded" and that orders had been given to be ready to "completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran."