Toast Options Market Prices in 11% Post-Earnings Stock Move

Options markets are pricing in a potential 11% move in either direction for Toast Inc. (TOST) shares following the company's upcoming quarterly earnings report on August 4. This expectation is based on an analysis of options trading data compiled by Bloomberg.

Options Market Expectations

The 11% implied move is derived from the pricing of Toast's options contracts, which reflects market expectations for stock volatility around the earnings announcement. This figure represents the anticipated magnitude of the share price swing but does not indicate whether the move will be positive or negative.

Historical Performance vs. Implied Moves

Toast's stock has a mixed record of meeting these volatility expectations. An analysis of the past eight earnings reports shows the stock's actual move has surpassed the options-implied swing on three occasions.

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• On November 7, 2024, shares surged 24.3%, significantly exceeding the 12.4% move priced in.
• Following its May 8, 2025, report, the stock gained 14.8% compared to an implied 12.5% move.
• Most recently, on May 7 of this year, shares fell 12.5%, a larger decline than the anticipated 10.5%.

In the other five of the last eight reporting periods, the actual stock movement was smaller than what options trading had suggested, according to the data.

Context for Investors

Toast, a restaurant technology company, is scheduled to release its financial results after the market closes on August 4. Investors will be closely watching the company's performance and forward guidance to see if the report contains a catalyst sufficient to drive the double-digit price change anticipated by derivatives traders.