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Tempus AI Options Market Prices in 8.7% Post-Earnings Move
Tempus AI Inc. (TEM) could see its stock price swing by 8.7% in either direction following its upcoming earnings announcement on November 2, according to an analysis of options market data. The artificial intelligence and precision medicine company is scheduled to release its financial results before the market opens.
Options Market Expectations
The anticipated move is derived from the pricing of options contracts that expire after the report, a metric known as implied volatility. This figure reflects the consensus expectation among traders for the magnitude of the stock's price reaction to the new corporate data and forward guidance.
Investors will be closely watching the results to gauge the company's growth trajectory and progress in the competitive AI-driven healthcare space. The 8.7% implied move indicates that the market is bracing for a significant reaction.
Historical Performance vs. Predictions
AdA review of Tempus AI's past earnings reactions shows a pattern of volatility that has sometimes outpaced market expectations. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the stock's actual post-earnings move was larger than the implied move in three of the last eight reporting periods.
Key historical examples of actual moves versus implied moves include:
- Feb. 24, 2025: A 33.9% decline, far exceeding the 12.0% move priced in.
- Nov. 4, 2025: A 10.2% drop, compared to an implied move of 9.2%.
- July 30: A 6.6% decline, slightly more than the 6.5% move traders had anticipated.
Conversely, the stock has also underperformed volatility expectations, such as on May 5 when it rose just 1.6% against an 8.8% implied move. This track record suggests that while the options market provides a benchmark, the actual price reaction remains unpredictable for investors and traders.
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