Sports Betting Operators Face Modestly Unfavorable NFL Week 1 Results, Canaccord Reports

The opening week of the NFL season produced "modestly unfavorable" results for sports betting operators, as a majority of heavily backed teams delivered wins for bettors, according to a note from Canaccord.

Bettors Gain Early Advantage

Public bettors found significant success in Week 1, particularly on moneyline wagers where they correctly picked the winner in 12 of the 16 games. This trend squeezed operator margins on some of the most popular matchups.

Key outcomes that favored customers included:

• The Detroit Lions' victory over the New Orleans Saints, which attracted 88% of the moneyline handle.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers' win, which was backed by 89% of the moneyline handle and 78% of the spread handle.

Major operators felt the impact. Caesars reported that eight of its 10 most popular touchdown scorer props were successful, while BetMGM noted favorable outcomes for customers on both regular and same-game parlays.

Areas of Relief for Sportsbooks

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Despite the moneyline results, operators found some relief in other betting markets. Against the spread, the side receiving less than 50% of the betting handle covered in 10 of 15 decisions, a positive outcome for the house.

Significant upsets also helped offset losses. The Arizona Cardinals' win over the Chargers and the New York Giants' victory against the Dallas Cowboys were key results for sportsbooks. In both games, over 90% of the handle on the total points was on the "over," but both games stayed "under," providing further relief. Canaccord also noted that favorable results from Saturday's college football slate likely helped cushion the impact of the NFL games.

Market and Handle Context

This analysis comes as the market enters its most critical period. Data from five states that reported August results showed a 10% year-over-year decline in betting handle to $2.32 billion and an 8% drop in gross gaming revenue to $224 million. This dip, largely concentrated in New York, reversed growth seen in June and July.

However, overall market activity remains high. Kalshi, an event contract marketplace, saw its notional volume increase 10% week-over-week to $13.1 billion. Meanwhile, DraftKings’ DKeX exchange saw its weekly notional volume surge by 125% to $441 million, highlighting strong engagement at the start of the football season.