Soybean Futures Fall on Pre-Report Positioning and Improved Weather

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures closed lower on Tuesday as traders took a cautious stance ahead of a pivotal U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Favorable weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest also weighed on prices. Analysts noted that recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have helped the soybean crop recover from the heat and dry conditions experienced in July, potentially improving yield prospects and alleviating supply concerns.

Key Market Moves

The decline was seen across the soy complex as traders repositioned their holdings. Specific settlement prices included:

• New-crop November soybeans fell 10-1/4 cents to close at $11.68-3/4 per bushel.
• CBOT September soymeal futures edged down 50 cents to $305 per short ton.
• September soyoil futures settled 0.96 cent lower at 68.57 cents per pound.

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USDA Report in Focus

The market is keenly awaiting Wednesday's USDA report, which will provide updated estimates for crop production and inventories. In a survey conducted by Reuters, market analysts anticipate that the USDA will actually reduce its forecasts for U.S. soybean ending stocks for both the 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. A reduction in ending stocks is typically a bullish signal, suggesting tighter supplies, which contrasts with Tuesday's price action.

Separately, the USDA confirmed new export sales under its daily reporting system. The sales included 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 180,000 tons of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines, both for delivery in the 2026-27 marketing year. However, this demand-positive news was not enough to offset the broader bearish sentiment from the improved weather outlook and pre-report adjustments.