SoftBank's Son Predicts $5 Trillion Annual AI Investment by 2040, Dismisses Bubble Fears

SoftBank Group CEO Masayoshi Son stated that the development of artificial intelligence will necessitate an annual investment of $5 trillion by 2040, dismissing any suggestions of a market bubble as "absurd." The forecast was delivered on Tuesday during SoftBank’s annual corporate conference in Tokyo, where the technology investor outlined his long-term vision for the sector.

A Staggering Investment Forecast

Son expressed high confidence in his projection, telling the audience, "Every year $5 trillion, or 800 trillion yen, you might think that’s a lie, but I am confident that’s what it will cost." He justified the massive figure by predicting that AI-related revenue could constitute 20% of global GDP by that time, making such an expenditure a "rounding error" in the broader economic context. The source material noted that Son did not elaborate on the methodology behind his calculations.

Amid soaring valuations for AI companies and ballooning capital expenditures on infrastructure, Son pushed back against concerns of an unsustainable boom. "Asking if AI is a bubble is absurd. I don’t think people who ask that question know what AI is about," he said, reiterating his bullish stance on the technology's transformative potential.

SoftBank's AI-Centric Strategy

Son's comments align with SoftBank's recent strategy, which has seen the investment group channel tens of billions of dollars into AI-related ventures. The firm is positioning itself as a core platform in the AI ecosystem through significant investments in companies like ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, as well as in data centers and robotics firms.

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SoftBank's cumulative investment in OpenAI is on track to surpass $60 billion by the end of 2026, highlighting the scale of its commitment. This high-conviction approach follows a mixed track record for Son, who is known for major successes like an early investment in Alibaba and significant failures such as the bankrupt office-sharing company WeWork.

Vision of a Powered-Up Future

Looking ahead, Son predicted that the energy demands of AI will be immense, forecasting that AI data centers will require 3 terawatts of power generation by 2040 — equivalent to 1.8 times the world's current total power consumption. He anticipates this need will initially be met by natural gas, with nuclear fusion eventually becoming the primary energy source.

Son also described a future where 100 trillion AI agents operate autonomously, leading to a fundamental shift in society. "We will go from a human-centric world to an agent-centric world," he said. "The age when humans are the highest life form on earth will end."