Story
Seagate Options Market Braces for 13% Swing on July 28 Earnings
Summary
Options data suggests Seagate Technology shares could see a significant price move following its upcoming earnings report, a pattern of volatility often surpassed in previous quarters.
The options market is pricing in a potential 13% move for shares of Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (NASDAQ: STX) following the company's earnings announcement scheduled for after the market closes on July 28. This expectation of heightened volatility is based on options data compiled by Bloomberg.
A History of Exceeding Expectations
Historically, Seagate's stock has frequently moved more than the options-implied forecast. In six of the past eight earnings announcements, the actual price swing surpassed what traders had priced in, suggesting a tendency for significant post-earnings reactions.
Notable past movements include:
- January 2026: Shares surged 35.8%, dramatically outpacing the 9.6% implied move.
- April 2026: The stock moved 19.2%, nearly double the 9.8% move suggested by options.
- October 2025: The company saw a 23.9% price change.
- April 2025: Shares experienced a 23.1% move.
AdInstances of Muted Reaction
While post-earnings volatility has often been high, there have been occasions where the stock's reaction was more subdued than anticipated. In two of the last eight quarters, the actual price movement fell short of the options-implied forecast.
On July 29, 2025, Seagate shares declined 1.5% against an expected 6.4% move. Similarly, on July 23, 2024, the stock moved just 0.5% compared to an implied move of 7%, according to the historical data.
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