Rivian Options Market Braces for 9.2% Swing on July 30 Earnings

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is poised for a significant price swing following its upcoming earnings report, with options market data indicating a potential one-day move of 9.2% in either direction. The electric vehicle manufacturer is scheduled to release its financial results after the market closes on July 30.

Options Market Signals Volatility

The expected move is based on options pricing compiled by Bloomberg, which reflects investor expectations for volatility surrounding the earnings announcement. This figure, known as the implied move, serves as a market-based forecast of how much the stock could fluctuate once the company's performance and outlook are revealed.

A History of Exceeding Expectations

Historically, Rivian's stock has often moved more than the options market had priced in. The stock has exceeded the implied move in five of its last eight earnings announcements, according to the data.

Ad

Recent quarters have seen particularly large reactions, underscoring the high stakes for investors. Notable past post-earnings moves include:

• February 2026: A 23.4% jump, more than double the 10.7% implied move.
• April 2026: A 15.3% decline, significantly larger than the 9.1% implied move.
• August 2025: A 15.5% drop, compared to an expected 9.9% move.

Conversely, the stock's reaction was more muted than expected in three of the last eight quarters. For instance, in February 2025, the stock rose just 3.9% against an implied move of 13.9%. This history highlights that while high volatility is anticipated, the actual outcome remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the substance of the earnings report.