Qualcomm Options Market Braces for 8.2% Post-Earnings Stock Move

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) shares could see a significant price swing following its upcoming earnings report, with the options market pricing in a potential move of 8.2% in either direction. The chipmaker is scheduled to release its financial results on July 29 after the market closes.

Options Market Expectations

This implied move is derived from options trading data compiled by Bloomberg and reflects investor expectations for volatility surrounding the earnings announcement. It is a statistical measure of the potential magnitude of the stock's reaction, not a prediction of its direction.

Traders and investors use this figure as a key benchmark to gauge market sentiment and potential risk ahead of the release. A higher implied move suggests the market is anticipating potentially impactful news or guidance from the company.

Historical Performance vs. Expectations

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An analysis of Qualcomm's past performance reveals a mixed record of meeting these volatility expectations. The stock's actual post-earnings move has exceeded the options-implied swing in four of the last eight quarters, or 50% of the time, according to the data.

Several recent reports have produced outsized reactions compared to market pricing:

• April 29: Shares surged 32.5%, vastly exceeding the 6.5% implied move.
• February 4: The stock fell 10.9%, more than double the anticipated 5.1% swing.
• July 2024: Qualcomm shares dropped 15.2%, also more than twice the 7.3% move the options market had priced in.

In the other four of the last eight reporting periods, the stock's reaction was more muted than what options traders had anticipated.