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Oil Prices Hold Steady as Traders Weigh Iran Tensions Against Rising Gulf Exports
Summary
Crude oil benchmarks traded in a narrow range as the market balanced supply concerns from stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy with signs of recovering crude exports from Saudi Arabia and the broader Gulf region.
Oil prices were nearly unchanged in early trading Thursday, consolidating after strong monthly gains as investors assessed conflicting geopolitical and supply signals from the Middle East.
As of 0045 GMT, Brent crude futures edged up 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $98.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 7 cents, or 0.1%, at $90.35 a barrel. The stability follows a roughly $1 gain for both benchmarks on Wednesday and a significant rally in September, which saw Brent surge about 14% and WTI climb around 5%.
Geopolitical Crosscurrents
Market sentiment is being pulled in two directions by developments in the Middle East. On one hand, persistent supply concerns are being fueled by stalled diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran. While Qatar expressed hope on Tuesday that shuttle diplomacy could yield a breakthrough, U.S. President Donald Trump denied reports from Axios and CNN that he was prepared to offer sanctions relief, according to Reuters.
On the other hand, signs of recovering oil flows are capping prices. Saudi Arabia on Tuesday resumed oil tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, Reuters reported. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs estimated in a note that Gulf oil exports, including covert shipments, have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, which is in line with the 2025 average.
AdSupply and Demand Data
Recent inventory data from the U.S. presented a mixed picture. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week:
- Crude stocks: Increased by 922,000 barrels, compared to analyst expectations for a 264,000-barrel draw in a Reuters poll.
- Fuel inventories: Fell sharply, signaling strong seasonal and global demand.
Looking ahead, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that the OPEC+ producer group is likely to maintain its current oil production targets for November when it meets on Sunday. This suggests the cartel is not planning immediate changes to its supply policy.
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