Novo Nordisk CEO Predicts Pills Could Claim 50% of Obesity Drug Market by 2030

Novo Nordisk's CEO projects that oral medications could capture as much as half of the global weight-loss drug market by 2030, a significant forecast that positions the company for a future less reliant on weekly injections. The statement, made to Reuters on Tuesday, outlines a strategic vision that diverges from many competitors in the rapidly growing obesity treatment space.

A Strategic Shift to Oral Therapies

Speaking after the company's Capital Markets Day in London, CEO Mike Doustdar said Novo Nordisk is preparing for a scenario where pills and injectables hold an equal market share. This outlook is more aggressive than current Wall Street forecasts, which estimate oral treatments will account for 14% to 40% of a market projected to reach between $100 billion and $150 billion by 2030.

Doustdar highlighted that competitors' drug development pipelines are heavily weighted toward injectables, noting a ratio of about eight injectable candidates for every two pills. He suggested this dynamic could create a long-term advantage for Novo, which has five oral treatments in development.

Market Performance and Pipeline

The Danish drugmaker has already seen early success with its oral version of Wegovy. According to company presentations, oral therapies now represent about one-third of all U.S. obesity prescriptions since the pill's launch earlier this year.

Ad

Key performance indicators for Novo's oral strategy include:

• Capturing more than 80% of new prescriptions for oral obesity treatments.
• Generating nearly 5.5 billion Danish crowns (approximately $843 million) in sales from the Wegovy pill in the first half of the year.
• An oral pipeline that includes next-generation candidates like zenagamtide, an oral amylin analogue, and a small-molecule drug.

Addressing Investor Concerns

The strategic emphasis on oral drugs also addresses investor concerns about future generic competition. Doustdar noted that while the patent for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy, expires in the early 2030s, the company's oral delivery technology is protected by separate patents.

He stated that these patents, covering the SNAC delivery technology used in the pill, extend protection into the "mid and late 30s," potentially shielding a key revenue stream from an impending patent cliff. This comes as the company faces intense competition from rivals like Eli Lilly, which has reportedly eroded some of Novo's market share.