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Morgan Stanley Eyes September Nintendo Direct for Zelda, Mario Catalysts
Morgan Stanley anticipates that Nintendo will hold a "Nintendo Direct" media presentation in September, an event that the brokerage sees as a potentially significant near-term catalyst for the company's Switch 2 software pipeline. The report, published Wednesday, outlines expectations for major franchise updates that could shape investor sentiment around the new console's earnings outlook.
Analyst Expectations
Morgan Stanley projects the presentation will heavily feature The Legend of Zelda's 40th anniversary. Key potential announcements cited by the firm include:
- A teaser for the live-action The Legend of Zelda film, which is scheduled for release in April 2027.
- The release date and gameplay details for a new version of The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, which the brokerage expects to launch around November.
Beyond Zelda, the report notes the potential for a positive surprise from a new 3D Mario game. Analysts suggest investors are increasingly anticipating such a title as a major 2027 release, pointing to Nintendo's history of launching 3D Mario games early in new console cycles. For context, the firm noted that *Super Mario Odyssey* has sold 30.8 million units cumulatively.
AdMarket Context and Outlook
The report suggests that the September event could also showcase more third-party titles adapted for the Switch 2, building on similar announcements from Nintendo's June Direct. This is seen as crucial for building out the new platform's game library and appeal.
As Nintendo navigates the early phase of the Switch 2 cycle, Morgan Stanley stated that the stock's valuation will increasingly hinge on the earnings outlook for the middle of the console's lifespan. The upcoming software reveals are therefore critical for establishing that long-term trajectory.
On Wednesday, Nintendo shares (TYO:7974) closed down 1.9% at 8,935 yen. Despite the decline, the stock outperformed the broader Nikkei 225 index, which fell 2.7% during the same session.
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