Lockheed Martin Options Market Prices in 4% Post-Earnings Move

The options market is pricing in a potential 4% move in either direction for Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) shares following the defense contractor's quarterly earnings announcement, scheduled for before the market opens on July 23. This expectation is based on an analysis of options data from Bloomberg.

Historical Volatility vs. Expectations

While the market is currently implying a 4% swing, Lockheed Martin's stock has historically exhibited greater volatility after its earnings releases. According to the data, the actual post-earnings price change has exceeded the move implied by options in six of the past eight reporting periods.

This trend suggests that options traders may have previously underestimated the stock's reaction to the company's financial results and outlook. Investors will be watching to see if this pattern of higher-than-expected volatility continues.

Review of Past Earnings Reactions

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The discrepancy between implied and actual moves has been significant in recent quarters. A review of past performance highlights several notable instances:

• April 23, 2026: The stock fell 13.3%, far exceeding the 4.8% move priced in by options.
• January 2026: Shares rose 6.2%, nearly double the 3.5% implied move.
• July 2025: The stock dropped 13.3% against an expected move of 4.4%.
• July 2024: Shares gained 8.1%, a much larger rally than the 2.7% implied move.

These past results underscore the potential for a significant reaction from Lockheed Martin shares, as the company provides updates on its performance and guidance amid the current geopolitical and economic landscape.