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Japanese Yen Weakens as BOJ Rate Hike Fails to Outweigh Hawkish Fed
Summary
The Japanese yen fell against a strengthening U.S. dollar even after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to a 31-year high, as the move was perceived as dovish and overshadowed by the Federal Reserve's hawkish monetary policy outlook.
The Japanese yen weakened on Friday even as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates to their highest level in 31 years. The U.S. dollar held firm near a seven-week peak, supported by expectations of further policy tightening from the Federal Reserve, highlighting a growing divergence in central bank outlooks.
BOJ Delivers 'Dovish' Hike
The Bank of Japan increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, a move that was widely anticipated by markets. However, the decision was seen as having a dovish tilt, as the board's 7-2 vote included two policymakers who dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged, according to the source report.
This tempered expectations for the pace of future tightening, putting downward pressure on the yen. In response, the USD/JPY currency pair rose 0.7% to trade near 157 yen. Analysts at Capital Economics noted in a report that the BOJ board's composition is likely to become "even more dovish" with the departure of two hawkish members next year.
Inflation Data Offers Little Support
Adding to the yen's headwinds, newly released data showed Japan's inflation remains contained. The core consumer price index (CPI) for August, which excludes fresh food, rose 1.7% year-on-year, slightly below the 1.8% forecast by economists and unchanged from July's reading.
AdThe data indicates that while inflation is near the BOJ's 2% target, there is little immediate pressure for a more aggressive tightening cycle. Investors are now awaiting comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda for further guidance on the bank's policy path.
Dollar Strength Dominates Forex Markets
The U.S. dollar remained the dominant force in currency markets, with the U.S. Dollar Index trading near a seven-week high at 100.26. The greenback's strength is underpinned by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, following its recent rate increase and projections pointing to one additional hike this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 53% probability of another quarter-point rate increase at the Fed's next meeting. Elsewhere in Asia, currency movements were mixed, with the Australian dollar gaining 0.3% against the dollar, while the Singapore dollar and Indian rupee were largely flat.
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