Iraq Seeks 6 Million BPD Oil Production Quota in OPEC+ Review, Bloomberg Reports

Iraq is seeking a major increase in its OPEC+ oil production quota, requesting that its future output target be based on a capacity of 6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter. The move comes as the producer alliance undertakes a comprehensive review of its members' production capabilities.

The Quota Request

The proposed capacity figure represents a significant increase from Iraq's current OPEC+ production ceiling, which stands at 4.431 million bpd for September and October. Securing a higher baseline quota is crucial for member countries, as it determines their share of the group's collective output and, consequently, their oil revenue.

The request has been submitted during a formal assessment by the OPEC+ group. The alliance has hired an external consultant to evaluate the maximum sustainable production capacity of each member nation. According to the report, this review is scheduled for completion by the end of September and is expected to be ratified by oil ministers in November.

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Potential Hurdles and Market Context

Iraq's ambitious target may face challenges during the review process. The International Energy Agency (IEA), a key industry watchdog, estimates Iraq’s current sustainable production capacity at approximately 4.9 million bpd, well below the requested 6 million bpd figure. This discrepancy could become a point of contention within the group.

The negotiations are critical for cohesion within the OPEC+ alliance. The source material notes that Iraq has previously indicated it might reconsider its membership in OPEC if its quota is not raised sufficiently. A Bloomberg survey showed Iraq's actual production averaged 2.98 million bpd in August, with flows reportedly disrupted by regional conflict.